Caravanning bubble - are we close to the solstice?

With the first lockdown in March 2020, vendors in the caravanning industry felt a little scared. Nervous movements, uncertainty of tomorrow, fear for the boom, financing and availability. Some assumed that the industry could emerge from this crisis with a black eye. However, it soon turned out that the pandemic regulations and restrictions created extremely favorable conditions and an Eldorado for companies related to this branch of our economy.

New rentals began to appear like mushrooms after the rain, and the sale of all recreational vehicles (caravans, motorhomes, vans for self-build) soared. The boom in the caravanning industry that started two years ago at that time had to face problems in the supply of components and base cars, dynamically galloping prices ... The waiting time for the dream vehicle often reached several months, and the dealers' exhibition areas were empty. Until now?

After the pandemic, and yet no better ...

In recent months, macroeconomic and political factors have changed the behavior of not only consumers. After recovering from the pandemic, we were indirectly hit by war and all its related implications. All this gained momentum in inflation, which translated into higher costs of every aspect of life, and also high interest rates related to inflation. After all, we live in the mechanism of connected vessels - entrepreneurs live off of us - customers. If consumption falls, the willingness and investment opportunities naturally decline. The uncertainty of tomorrow and the growing fiscal burden / costs are real problems that every entrepreneur faces. In such circumstances, the demand for non-essential goods has the right to slow down. And that's how it starts to happen.

Apart from the above “macro” factors, the slowing of the moods is also influenced by gigantic price increases. an amount slightly exceeding PLN 500,000 PLN gross, you could buy a really sensibly equipped, new motorhome - a premium class integra (Carthago / Hymer), comparable models cost almost 30% more this year.

Similarly with half-integrateds, which at the same time could be easily "torn out" for 250-300 thousand. zloty. The increase in the prices of base cars, bodybuilders and (yes, let's not be afraid of the word) sellers' margins are, along with inflation, the main reasons for this state of affairs. Of course, in the wake of the new vehicles, the used ones have also become more expensive - who in the last 2 years even thought about buying a trailer or a motorhome from the secondary market will confirm that what has happened can be boldly called madness.

Leasing assignments on the agenda?

For many entrepreneurs, leasing is the first and most natural form of financing a vehicle - any vehicle. Observation of motorhome offers appearing on popular internet portals allows us to draw simple conclusions - while the number of assignment offers in 2020 and 2021 could be counted on the fingers of one hand, there are currently several dozen of them. For the purposes of the article, I allowed myself to start a conversation with a dozen or so bidders (to avoid distortions, I focused not on rental companies, but on offers published privately / by entrepreneurs). When asking for a short, anonymous justification for the decision to sell a motorhome, I focused on 4 answer options:
- the model did not work, I plan to buy another one
- I am selling for economic reasons due to the current situation
- the vehicle was purchased in connection with a pandemic, but preferences have changed and will not be needed
- other (life situation, etc.)

I must admit that I managed to precede both the questions and the interview itself with conversations with several sellers, but also with users of relatively "fresh" motorhomes during industry meetings / rallies. You could say that I sensed intuitively what was squeaking in the grass. And the journalistic hunch did not disappoint. Out of a dozen or so interviewees (I admit that this is a small sample, but I believe that it is representative), most indicated economic reasons - mainly increasing installments and maintenance costs (50%), the next group are those who clearly say: we prefer hotels / lodgings / cottages ”(30%), and only one interviewee wanted to replace a half-integrated with an integrated over 4.5 tons. I think that the same thing would happen if the research was carried out on motorhomes who sell (and not give up leasing) motorhomes up to 3 years old.

What's next?

The above "experiment" does not mean that the sale of new motorhomes and caravans will suddenly "stop", but there are signs of a slowdown on the horizon, which basically only confirm and reflect the general trend of slowing down consumption. The fact that the interest is declining can be seen with the naked eye - until recently it was difficult to imagine "free" cars in the middle of the season on dealerships. The number of motorhome rental offers, free dates and the price war in the high season clearly show that this market segment, in an increasingly difficult situation, is also facing a serious reshuffle.

Caravanning is not a cheap hobby if you want to start with a new vehicle right away. The purchase is a minimum amount of PLN 300, and most often about PLN 400,000 gross. Annual inspections, replacement of parts and insurance cost several thousand zlotys. Renting a car in the high season costs a minimum of PLN 500 per night. Will we still be able to afford all of this?

The first signs of scratches on the so far perfectly smooth bubble are already visible. Will you be able to come out with a black eye this time? In my opinion, we must wait for an unequivocal answer until the first quarter of next year. This is when most of the long-awaited and currently in production vehicles will finally be delivered to customers. Only then will it be possible to determine the degree of market saturation, redefine the "pain threshold" and assess the condition and prospects for the industry. Regarding the "pain threshold" - we are already receiving information about new products for 2023, which are waiting for the premiere at the fair in Düsseldorf. More than one "ordinary" VW T6.1 with decent bodywork is to break the ceiling of 100,000. EUR, that is the level until recently reserved for integrated, higher-class motorhomes. Promises to be interesting.